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欧妮酱

WSJ - Heard on the Street - Mar 04

How to Invest in These Very Confusing Times 如何在当前这种令人困惑的时期进行投资

There’s no perfect way to tackle this problem, but there are broad choices for investors to make 没有完美的方法来解决这个问题，但投资者们仍有很多选项
Economists have rarely been so divided about the future aside from during recession, and sensible investors shouldn’t have much confidence in their own forecasts, either. It’s a hard time to put money to work. 除了在经济衰退期间，经济学家们对未来的看法很少如此分歧，明智的投资者们也不应该对自己的预测抱有太大信心。现在很难把钱投得好。
There are always good reasons for being uncertain about the future, but right now the uncertainty is worse because directly opposite outcomes—“no landing” with superlow unemployment forever or a hard landing and recession—are both plausible. 对未来的不确定性总是有充分的理由的，但现在的不确定性更为严重，因为存在直接相反的结果 —— 经济“不着陆（即无衰退）”且超低的失业率永久持续，或者硬着陆出现衰退，两种情况都有可能。
The signals from the economy have been especially unsettling for forecasters this year, as signs of a slowdown that had been building last year were swept away by unexpectedly strong figures in January. 今年以来，来自经济的信号尤其令预测者们感到不安，因为1月份出人意料的强劲数据一扫了去年一直存在的经济放缓迹象。
Economists expect weak growth, but are more split than usual on just how weak. The gap between the best and worst U.S. real GDP forecasts collated by Consensus Economics is higher now than at any time since 2020, with a high for growth in two years of 2.2% and a low that would see a 0.7% shrinkage. 经济学家们预计增长乏力，但在增长乏力的程度上，他们的分歧比以往更大了。共识经济学公司整理的最佳和最差美国实际GDP预测之间的差距现在比2020年以来的任何时候都要大，两年内的增长率最高值为2.2%，而最低预测值是下降0.7%。
It could be that the mild weather encouraged more activity, although other countries had strong outcomes too. It could be merely that everyone was too gloomy. Or it could be that the economy is behaving like Dr. Dolittle’s Pushmi-Pullyu. It goes one way then the other as the Federal Reserve’s rapid rate rises struggle against postpandemic strength in consumption, especially in services. 这可能是因为温和的天气鼓励了更多的活动，尽管其他国家也有强劲的结果。可能只是每个人都太悲观了。也可能是经济表现得像杜立特博士的Pushmi-Pullyu（注：科幻中的双头怪羊驼，两个头分别长在身体两端，行动的时候两个头都想往各自的方向走，形成反作用力）。随着美联储的快速加息力图遏制疫情后消费（尤其是服务业）的强劲势头，两边的力量此消彼长。
The uncertainty is worsened by the division between data regarded as “soft,” typically based on surveys and subject to the mood of those questioned, and “hard” data such as unemployment or retail sales. Hard data has been very strong, while soft data has been very weak. At the start of the year, Goldman Sachs’s measure of hard economic activity was the strongest since before the Fed rate rises began, while soft data was the weakest since lockdowns ended. No wonder people are confused. 这种不确定性因 “软”数据（通常基于调查并取决于受访者的情绪）和“硬”数据（如失业率或零售额）之间的差异而恶化。硬数据一直很强，而软数据一直很弱。年初，高盛对硬经济活动的衡量是自美联储开始加息之前以来最强的，而软数据是自封锁结束以来最弱的。难怪人们感到困惑。
An uncertain outlook leads to more volatility. Markets swing a lot more when daily data brings big surprises compared with the forecast. (Again, hard data has been surprisingly good, soft data not.) Fund managers are also more likely to buy options to protect their portfolios, pushing up the cost of options and implied volatility. Sure enough, volatility has been rising since the low at the start of February, with the ICE BofA MOVE index, a gauge of implied volatility in bonds, up sharply. The CBOE VIX index of implied volatility for the S&P 500 is up a lot too, but both are still far below last year’s highs. 不确定的前景会导致更大的波动性。当每日的数据与预测值相比，都出乎意料时，市场波动会更大。（同样，硬数据出奇地好，软数据则不然。）基金经理们也更有可能购买期权来保护他们的投资组合，从而推高期权价格和隐含波动性。果然不出预料，自2月初的低点以来，波动率一直在上升，ICE BofA MOVE指数（衡量债券隐含波动率的指标）大幅上升。衡量标普500指数隐含波动率的CBOE VIX指数也大幅上涨，但两者仍远低于去年的高点。
To some extent, the volatility rise merely corrects for it being so low at the start of February, when investors were overly optimistic. But it also reflects the genuine economic puzzle. 在某种程度上，波动率的上升只是对2月初投资者过于乐观时的低波动率进行了修正。但这也反映了真正的经济难题。
For investors trying to build a portfolio, the danger isn’t so much day-to-day volatility—good advice isn’t to look at daily moves in your 401(k)—but the danger of extreme outcomes in the longer run, what financiers call “fat tails.” Figures derived from inflation options by the Minneapolis Fed show traders are pricing less than a 50% probability of inflation averaging between 1% and 3% over the next five years, as they recognize the elevated chance of high inflation. However, this hasn’t replaced the risk of low inflation: The chance of inflation below 1% is very close to the average since 2009, which included a decade of lowflation, because of the risk of a Fed-induced recession. 对于试图建立投资组合的投资者来说，风险不在于日常波动。好的建议不是去关注401（k）（一种由雇员、雇主共同缴费建立起来的完全基金式的养老保险制度）的每日变动，而是看长期可能出现极端结果的风险，金融家们称之为“肥尾”。“明尼阿波利斯联储从通胀期权中得出的数据显示，交易员们认为未来五年平均通胀率在1%至3%之间的概率低于50%，因为他们认识到高通胀的可能性增加。然而，这并不是说就没有了低通胀的风险：由于美联储政策可能引发衰退的风险，低于1%的通胀率非常接近2009年以来的平均水平，其中包括十年的低通胀。
There’s no perfect way to tackle this problem. Assets that do better during inflation tend to do poorly in recession, and vice versa. Here are three broad choices: 解决这个问题没有完美的方法。在通货膨胀期间表现较好的资产在衰退时往往表现不佳，反之亦然。这里有三个常见的选项：
1. Diversify, and accept the low long-term expected returns the market is offering. A standard 60% stocks, 40% bonds portfolio will very occasionally do terribly, as last year, if everything goes badly. But most of the time the bonds offer a cushion against bad outcomes, while the stocks pick up when things go well. Further diversify into global stocks and bonds, property and commodities to cover all the bases. Some part of the portfolio will probably do badly in an extreme outcome, but some part will do well, too, and they are unlikely perfectly to offset. The rest of the time, both should bring returns.
1.多样化，并接受市场提供的较低的长期预期回报。一个标准的60%股票、40%债券的投资组合，如果一切都糟糕的话，偶尔会像去年一样糟糕。但大多数时候，债券能为糟糕的结果提供缓冲，而股票则在市场好的时候会上涨。进一步多元化投资全球股票、债券、房地产和大宗商品，以覆盖所有基础类资产。在极端的情况下，投资组合的某些部分可能会表现不佳，但有些部分也会表现良好，而且不太可能完全抵消。（剔除极端情况后）剩余的时间，两者都会带来回报。
2. Take a view. If you believe recession is a sure thing and the Fed’s done far too much already, load up on bonds. If you think the Fed will never be willing to do what’s needed to tame inflation, avoid normal Treasurys, and bet big on Treasury inflation-protected securities, commodities and stocks able to pass on cost increases to customers.
2．认定一种观点（并据此采取行动）。如果你认为衰退是肯定的，而美联储已经做得太多了，那就增加债券的仓位。如果你认为美联储永远不会动真格地采取必要的措施来抑制通胀，那就不要投资一般的国债，而应在财政部发行的通胀保值证券、大宗商品和股票上加大仓位，从而将成本增加转嫁给客户。
3. Scenario planning. After taking a view, consider how your portfolio would perform if you’re dead wrong. A big bond position will hurt a lot if inflation proves sticky. Stocks almost always perform dismally in recessions. If the portfolio would lose horribly in a plausible scenario, consider what it would cost to protect against it. Options can be used for shortish periods, although require maintenance to roll them over and monitor. Or assets that would move a lot in an extreme outcome—companies with a lot of leverage or operational risk are obvious examples—can be used. Beware complication, though: One of the big risks investors have is that they get their forecasts right, but are wrong about how prices will respond.
3.情境规划。在认定一个观点之后，考虑一下如果你完全错了，你的投资组合将如何表现。如果通胀最终居高不下，那么大量的债券持仓就会遭受大的损失。如果衰退出现，股市几乎总是表现不佳。如果投资组合在看似合理的情境下会损失惨重，那么考虑一下防范风险的成本。期权可以用于短期内的风险防范，尽管期权需要维护，进行滚动和监控。或者，使用在极端情境下会发生大幅波动的资产，譬如那些使用大量杠杆或存在运营风险的公司就是明显的例子。不过，要注意（这么干的）复杂性：投资者们面临的大风险之一就是，他们（对情境）的预测是对的，但他们对（市场）价格（在该情境下）的反应（猜）错了。
The most important thing to remember is that uncertainty is normal, and is good for investors, just so long as it comes with enough of a reward. If everyone knew what was going to happen, there would be no risk, and so no reward. 要记住的最重要的一点是，不确定性是正常的，只要它带来足够的回报，对投资者来说就是好的。如果每个人都知道会发生什么，就不会有风险，也就不会有回报。